Making a M*A*S*H of things...

How can I put this gently? ...I can't.

People need to calm the fuck down. To hear certain persons in the media tell it, the North Koreans are fixing to re-enact Red Dawn, for real. I've heard the current situation described as "Obama's Cuban Missile Crisis." Why is it that conservatives can't seemed to described anything without referencing the past, scaring the hell out everyone and/or insulting the competition?

I understand all the arguments about proliferation and the threat to Alaska (I suppose Sister Sarah could quite see Pyongyang from the porch) but frankly, people, you need to keep something firmly in mind. Actually about 1.3 billion somethings. And, really, more like 1.3 billion someones. I'm talking about (did you guess?) China.

What has China got to do with it? Aren't Beijing and Pyongyang commie BFF's? No. No they aren't.

In terms of realpolitik, North Korea is China's excruciatingly immature younger brother; they are getting sick of watching out for them and really want them to grow up and stop embarrassing them in front of the cool kids. Let me spell this out explicitly. China has only recently managed to transform itself into an economic giant and they are collectively enjoying themselves and their new wealth. While still a brutal, centrist regime the Chinese have liberalized a bit and are enjoying the fruits of commerce, particularly world trade. That centrist part is important, because Beijing is basically run by a clutch of old, humorless, gray-faced, bureaucratic Chinese hard-asses with a standing interest in keeping things quiet and orderly and a 2000+ year old bias towards Stability. Note the Capital Letter.

Now keeping that in mind, lets add the following nuggets of information; China's population is mostly male, the unemployment rate is climbing and The People, having gotten a taste of Western style prosperity aren't keen to go back to fish-heads and straw sandals. So, in short, China is ripe for a revolution and the aforementioned bureaucrats are painfully aware of this. Now, think really hard; just exactly how good for stability (aka business) do you think a Second Korean War is going to be?

So here's why I'm not worried about the Kims: The Chinese will oust them before anyone else gets a chance to, if they disrupt business, thus risking Chinese revolution. Also, with roughly 50 million men potentially under arms and almost certainly looking for wives (and don't forget the millions of married soldiers) , North Korea will last exactly as long as it takes them to run out of bullets. About four days, IMO.